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Opening night is in the books. Thirteen games, six shutouts, three decided by a single score.
That's enough for our model to start separating the county. Here's where all 25 MCPS programs stand after Week 1, how far each one moved off our preseason board, and what Thursday night looks like.
Movement throughout is measured against that preseason board. A team can win and still slide if the wins around it were louder.
Where the County Stands
Photo: @moderatelymoco
Everybody in the top eight is 1-0. The two 0-1 teams still holding top-10 ground both lost to teams ranked above them: Paint Branch at No. 1 QO, and B-CC by a point to No. 5 Churchill.
The Rest of the Board
Photo: @moderatelymoco
Biggest Risers
Whitman, up 7 to No. 13. The 46-0 shutout of Kennedy was the third-largest margin any MCPS team posted all week, and Whitman started the year down at No. 20.
Northwood, up 7 to No. 18. They opened last on our board at No. 25 and beat Watkins Mill 20-10. That ties Whitman for the week's biggest climb.
Wootton, up 6 to No. 8. Forty-seven unanswered points against Rockville will move a team into the top 10 in a hurry.
Biggest Fallers
RM, down 6 to No. 15. Damascus hung 55 on them. It's the margin that did the damage, not the loss itself.
Blake, down 5 to No. 12. The 29-14 loss at Northwest was competitive enough, but Blake opened at No. 7 and the teams behind them had better nights.
Paint Branch, down 4 to No. 9. Shut out 28-0 by QO. A loss to the No. 1 team costs less than most, which is why they're still inside the top 10.
The Story of the Week: Churchill Won and Still Slipped
Churchill went to B-CC, came out with a 20-19 win, and dropped from No. 3 to No. 5.
Nobody's being punished for winning here. Three teams around Churchill won by 28, 37, and 47 on the same night, and a one-point escape doesn't keep pace with that. Churchill is still 1-0 with a top-five profile. The model just wants more evidence before it hands the spot back.
They'll get their chance right away. No. 4 Northwest visits Churchill on Thursday night in a game our board splits 51-49, with no projected margin at all.
Best Win of the Week
QO takes it. The 28-0 win over Paint Branch wasn't the biggest margin of the night, but it was the only shutout thrown at a team we ranked in the preseason top five. Sherwood's 57-0 and Wootton's 47-0 were louder. QO's was harder.
Games to Watch: Week 2
All thirteen Week 2 games kick Thursday night, September 10. Four are top-10 matchups and six carry an upset watch.
No. 4 Northwest at No. 5 Churchill, 6:30 PM. The model splits it 51-49 and projects no margin at all. That's as close as our board gets, and it's the only one of those between two top-five teams.
No. 6 Seneca Valley at No. 2 Sherwood, 6:30 PM. Sherwood by 11. First real test of whether that 57-0 meant anything.
No. 8 Wootton at No. 3 Damascus, 6:30 PM. Damascus by 10. These two just won by a combined 84 points.
No. 10 B-CC at No. 7 Blair, 7:00 PM. Blair by 4, upset watch. B-CC lost by a point last week and gets a top-10 road test to answer it.
No. 17 Wheaton at No. 20 Springbrook, 6:30 PM. Another 51-49 split. Springbrook is coming off a 14-12 win and Wheaton has something to prove.
Photo: @moderatelymoco
Week 1 By the Numbers
Six shutouts in thirteen games. Sherwood, Wootton, Whitman, Seneca Valley, QO, and Winters Mill all held an opponent scoreless.
Three one-score games. Churchill 20-19 at B-CC, WJ 20-19 over Gaithersburg, and Springbrook 14-12 at Einstein.
Fourteen of the 25 ranked teams moved three or more spots off their preseason position.
Northwood (No. 25 to No. 18) and Springbrook (No. 23 to No. 20) both climbed out of the preseason bottom five.
How These Rankings Work
Capital Sideline's power rankings are generated using an internal model that weighs team results, scoring performance, opponent strength, recent form, and schedule difficulty. Rankings are updated weekly as new scores are reported. More information here.
Parts of this article may have been written using AI. Contact us with any issues or corrections.
